Seven games in, the table looks upside down. Gary O’Neil’s Ipswich sit a comfortable 10th.
Oliver Glasner’s Nottingham Forest, a European side not long ago, are 19th with five points and a manager already feeling the heat.
Friday night under the Portman Road lights has the feel of a game that will tell us which of these two league positions is a lie.
Ipswich: chaos merchants who keep winning
Replacing Kieran McKenna was never going to be easy, but O’Neil has the Tractor Boys competitive fast.
Three wins already — the same number as Liverpool — and more home victories than they managed in the entire relegation campaign two seasons ago.
But nobody watching Ipswich gets a quiet night. Their last five league games produced 20 goals.
They scored twice against Crystal Palace, Arsenal, Fulham and even leaders Manchester City, losing 3-2 at the Etihad last weekend. The flip side: 15 goals conceded in seven and not a single clean sheet.
Five of their seven matches have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals — the highest rate in the league.
Julio Enciso is the spark. The Paraguayan, supported by Daizen Maeda and Emersonn, gave City’s defence real problems, and Ipswich’s home crowd will expect more of the same.
Forest: the strangest stat in the league
Here’s the number that defines this fixture. Forest have not scored a single goal at home this season — four matches, zero goals.
Yet away from the City Ground they have scored in all three games, including a 2-1 win at Aston Villa.
Overall they average just 0.70 goals per game, the worst in the division, and have drawn blanks in two of their last three.
The analytics crowd argue Forest’s expected-goals numbers say they are due a correction. Glasner needs that correction to arrive tonight.
They were unlucky to lose to champions Arsenal on Sunday, and expect them to come out on the front foot.
Team news
Ipswich: Sasa Lukic (groin) should return alongside Exequiel Palacios. Abdul Fatawu is back from suspension, piling pressure on Maeda’s wide spot. Jack Taylor (knee) is still out. O’Neil switched to a back three at City, with Leif Davis and Abdoul Ouattara as wing-backs — expect him to stick with it.
Forest: Igor Jesus (calf) and Nicolo Savona (knee) are out. Morgan Gibbs-White missed the Arsenal game with a muscle problem but Glasner says he is close — if he starts, Forest’s attack changes completely. Nikola Milenkovic is back in the squad after a knee issue.
The Delap factor
Liam Delap returns to the club where he made his name. With Igor Jesus injured, he leads the line.
He has the goal threat (he opened the scoring at Villa) and the temper — 12 bookings in 37 league games for Ipswich, and two in his first five Forest starts. Expect him to be right in the middle of everything.
Tactical key
Ipswich’s back three can leave space outside the centre-backs, and that’s where Gibbs-White and McAtee will look to drift. Going the other way, if Forest’s wide centre-backs step out, Emersonn and Enciso can attack the space in behind. Whoever wins those pockets wins the game.
The odds
Market
Fractional
Decimal
Ipswich win
11/5
3.20
Draw
5/2
3.50
Forest win
6/5
2.20
Both teams to score
8/13
1.62
The bookies make Forest favourites on underlying numbers. The pundits are split everywhere — predictions range from a 2-0 home win to a Forest away victory, with 1-1 the most common call.
XScore verdict
We think the market is overrating Forest. Backing a team that hasn’t scored at home is one thing — but backing one with a 0.70 goals-per-game average, on the road against a side that wins at home, at short odds is another. Ipswich at 3.20 is the value.
At the same time, Ipswich simply do not keep clean sheets, and Forest score away from home.
Both teams scoring is the safest angle on the card.
Prediction: Ipswich 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Best bets:
Both teams to score — 1.62
Ipswich win — 3.20
Liam Delap to score or be carded
Portman Road on a Friday night, a homecoming striker with a short fuse, and a manager fighting for his job. Don’t switch off early.
Bet responsibly. 18+ only.
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