Seven games, seven wins. Enzo Maresca has walked into the Etihad and done something no manager has managed before: win his first seven Premier League matches in charge of a club. Manchester City sit top with 21 points, three clear of champions Arsenal, and they are one win away from becoming only the third side in Premier League history to win their opening eight.
Standing in the way is the one team that seems to have City’s number. Unai Emery’s Aston Villa have won the last two league meetings, beat City 1-0 at Villa Park last October, and won 2-1 at the Etihad in Pep Guardiola’s final game. City have not won at Villa Park in four visits.
Something has to give at lunchtime.
City: perfect, but not untouchable
The numbers are frightening. Seven league wins from seven, and Erling Haaland has 12 goals in 10 appearances. Last weekend they beat Ipswich 3-2, and in midweek they beat AEK Athens in the Champions League.
But look closer. Ipswich scored twice at the Etihad, and City lost 4-2 to PSG in Europe a few weeks back. This is a City side that wins but can be got at. And Haaland, for all his goals, has just one in five games against Villa.
Antoine Semenyo is a big loss. He is out with a knee injury, possibly until Christmas.
Villa: hot in Europe, cold at home
Villa are 12th, only two points off the top six, and they have won five of their last six in all competitions. The odd part: they still have not won a Premier League game at Villa Park this season.
Emery has the edge in the dugout too, winning two of his three meetings with Maresca. His Villa sides are built to frustrate the possession teams. They sit compact, press in bursts and punish loose passes in midfield.
Team news
Aston Villa: Amadou Onana (ACL) and Matteo Ruggeri are out. Aaron Wan-Bissaka is also missing. Johan Manzambi (muscle) is a doubt, and Ian Maatsen is coming back from an ankle problem.
Man City: Semenyo (knee) is out. Haaland is fully fit after missing the AEK game. Nico O’Reilly, Mateo Kovacic and Matheus Nunes were rested midweek and are pushing to return.
Predicted Villa XI: Suzuki; Cash, Lindelof, Torres, Maatsen; Kamara, Gomes; McGinn, Buendia, Manzambi; Jackson
Predicted City XI: Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guehi, O’Reilly; Anderson, Bouaddi, Fernandez; Foden, Haaland, Doku
Tactical key
Villa will sit in a mid-block and dare City’s centre-backs to play through Kamara and Gomes. The danger for City is the transition. Lose the ball in midfield, and McGinn and Buendia are running at a high defensive line with Jackson in behind.
City’s answer is width. Doku against a Villa right side missing Wan-Bissaka could be the matchup that decides the game, with Haaland waiting for the cutback.
The odds
| Market | Decimal |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 5.00 |
| Draw | 4.33 |
| Man City win | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 |
The bookies give City around a 60% chance. Villa at 5.00 is the high price that the head-to-head says is too long.
XScore verdict
City’s run is real, but this is the toughest away trip they’ve had. Villa’s recent record against them is too strong to ignore, and Ipswich showed this City defence can be breached.
We expect City to edge it, but not to keep Villa out. Backing Villa at 5.00 is a fun value shot for small stakes. The safer angles are City winning in a game where both sides score.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1-2 Man City
Best bets:
- Both teams to score
- Man City win
- Value shot: Aston Villa win at 5.00 (small stake)
Perfection meets Emery’s Villa Park fortress-in-waiting. If anyone is going to end City’s streak, it’s this lot.
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