A London derby that’s become one-way traffic. Chelsea have won the last five league meetings with Spurs, and Tottenham have won just once in their last 36 league visits to Stamford Bridge, losing 24 of them.
Xabi Alonso’s Chelsea are fourth and scoring for fun. Roberto De Zerbi’s Tottenham are 16th, finally off the bottom after their first league win of the season. Saturday night is a huge test of whether that win was a turning point or a one-off.
Chelsea: thrilling, but leaky
Chelsea have scored 17 league goals in seven games. Only a few sides can match that. Their home games have been chaos: 5-1, 4-3 and 2-2. Last weekend they became the first team to beat Everton this season, winning 2-0 at Goodison.
Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers are the engine, with eight goals and seven assists between them already. Rogers has six goal involvements in six games against Spurs.
The catch is at the back. Chelsea have conceded 13, and goalkeeper Emi Martinez is out after jaw surgery, so young Mike Penders is expected to start. Reece James (knee) is out until around January.
Spurs: lots of the ball, little end product
De Zerbi’s side keep the ball, averaging 60% possession, more than Chelsea, but they’ve scored only six goals in seven games. Before beating Coventry 3-1 they had gone six without a win, including two goalless draws. They’ve also lost their last six London derbies.
The injury list is ugly. Lucas Bergvall, Savio, Xavi Simons and Wilson Odobert are out, and Rodrigo Bentancur is suspended. There are doubts over Andy Robertson, Omar Marmoush and Tosin Adarabioyo. The good news for De Zerbi: Dejan Kulusevski is back after 526 days out, and Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie could return.
Team news
Chelsea: Emi Martinez (jaw), Reece James (knee), Jamie Gittens (ankle) and Emmanuel Emegha are out. Pep Chavarria is a doubt, with Jorrel Hato ready at left-back. Malo Gusto is back from illness.
Tottenham: Bentancur is suspended. Bergvall (knee), Savio (muscle), Simons and Odobert are out, and Mykhailo Mudryk can’t face his parent club. Robertson, Marmoush and Adarabioyo are doubts.
The numbers
| Stat (7 games) | Chelsea | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 17 | 6 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 10 |
| Shots on target | 39 | 27 |
| Possession | 48.6% | 59.8% |
| Chances created | 76 | 65 |
Last five league meetings: Chelsea won all five, scoring 10 and conceding 4.
The odds
| Market | Fractional | Decimal |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 4/6 | 1.67 |
| Draw | 3/1 | 4.00 |
| Tottenham win | 16/5 | 4.20 |
| Both teams to score | 8/15 | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/9 | 1.44 |
| Chelsea win & BTTS | 19/10 | 2.90 |
XScore verdict
Chelsea at home score goals and concede them. Spurs are blunt but have enough possession, and Kulusevski is back, to find a goal against a stand-in keeper.
The straight Chelsea win at 1.67 is fair but short. Chelsea to win and both teams to score at 2.90 is the bet that fits how this Chelsea side plays.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham
Best bets:
- Chelsea win & BTTS: 2.90
- Over 2.5 goals: 1.44 (accumulator banker)
- Value extra: Palmer or Rogers to score
History says Chelsea. The stats say goals. Spurs need a miracle at the Bridge, and they haven’t found many there.
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