17th hosts 18th, separated by a single point. Frank Lampard’s promoted Coventry have 6 points; Alvaro Arbeloa’s Fulham have 5. It’s not glamorous, but by May this is the kind of game that decides who stays up.
Coventry: all or nothing
Coventry don’t do quiet afternoons. They lost their first four league games, then won 1-0 at Nottingham Forest and beat Newcastle 4-1 at home. Then came a 5-0 home hammering by Brighton and a 3-1 defeat at Tottenham last time out.
Lampard’s side is built for directness. They average around 34% possession and 63 long balls a game, playing quickly into Cherif and the runners around him. The problem is at the back: 14 goals conceded in seven, two a game, and they’ve conceded in six of seven.
Jack Rudoni is the man in form. He has scored in each of his last two games and drives everything through the middle.
Fulham: plenty of the ball, no wins away
Fulham are the opposite. They average 57% possession, more shots, and far more chances created (82 to Coventry’s 54). They should have scored more, too: their chances added up to over four goals more than they’ve actually managed.
They finally won a league game last weekend, beating Hull 1-0 at home with an Alex Iwobi goal. But away from home they are winless in eight league games (four draws, four defeats), and they haven’t won back-to-back league games since March.
Team news
Coventry: Haji Wright (hamstring), Aurele Amenda (calf), Josh Eccles (ankle) and Luke Woolfenden are out.
Fulham: Ryan Sessegnon is suspended after his red card against Hull. Hugo Larsson (groin) is a doubt, and Antonee Robinson and Gonzalo Garcia aren’t certain to start.
Predicted Coventry XI (4-2-3-1): Rushworth; van Ewijk, Thomas, Pinnock, Dasilva; Yirenkyi, Grimes; Thomas-Asante, Rudoni, Mason-Clark; Cherif
Predicted Fulham XI (4-2-3-1): Leno; Castagne, Affengruber, Bassey, Robinson; Charles, Berge; Bobb, King, Iwobi; Garcia
Tactical key
Watch Rudoni against Shea Charles. Charles is the first pass out of Fulham’s midfield; if Rudoni presses him well, Coventry win the ball high and attack a back line missing Sessegnon. If Fulham play through him, they’ll have long spells of control against a Coventry defence that leaks chances.
The numbers
| Stat (7 games) | Coventry | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 6 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 10 |
| Possession | 37.5% | 57.2% |
| Shots on target | 23 | 33 |
| Chances created | 54 | 82 |
Head-to-head: Coventry are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Fulham, including 4-1 and 3-1 wins in the Championship in 2021/22.
The odds
| Market | Fractional | Decimal |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 13/5 | 3.60 |
| Fulham win | 13/10 | 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 8/13 | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 11/10 | 2.10 |
| Coventry or draw (double chance) | – | 1.62 |
The bookies make Fulham favourites, which is generous for a team that hasn’t won away in eight.
XScore verdict
Fulham will have the ball; Coventry will have the moments. Coventry’s defence is too leaky to keep Fulham out, but Fulham’s away form and poor finishing make them hard to trust at 2.30.
This has a draw written all over it, and both sides should score.
Prediction: Coventry 1-1 Fulham
Best bets:
- Both teams to score: 1.62
- Draw: 3.60
- Value extra: Jack Rudoni to score (4.75)
Fulham have been the better side on paper all season, but paper doesn’t win away games. Expect a nervy point each.
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