Six points. That’s the gap between these two before a ball is kicked at Anfield tonight, and if Arsenal leave Merseyside with all three, it becomes nine. Liverpool can’t afford to let that happen. Arsenal have come here to make sure it does.
The Gunners sit second, level on 21 points with leaders Manchester City, after seven wins from eight. Liverpool are fifth on 15 and have been hard to beat but rarely convincing, with three draws already on the board.
Form Guide
Liverpool (last 5): D W L W W. Back-to-back wins over Brentford (2-1) and Brighton (2-0) have steadied things after a 3-0 home hiding by Man City on 11 October. The bigger worry is Anfield itself: just one win in four league games at home (W1 D2 L1), with Nottingham Forest and Fulham both leaving with a point.
Arsenal (last 5): W L W W W. Four straight wins since a 3-0 hammering at Brighton. Arsenal aren’t scoring a lot, but they barely concede: five clean sheets in eight, and only six goals against all season, the tightest defence in the league. Away from home they’ve won three of four, three of them by a single goal or two to nil.
Team News
Liverpool: Jeremie Frimpong is expected to miss out with an injury that will likely keep him out until the November international break. Dominik Szoboszlai is set to be available after his own fitness scare.
Arsenal: Bukayo Saka’s thigh injury is the big story, with no confirmed return date, so his involvement is in serious doubt. Piero Hincapié (ankle) is rated as a likely starter. Check confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off.
The Numbers
| Liverpool | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 2nd |
| Points | 15 | 21 |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-3-1 | 7-0-1 |
| Goals for/against | 11 / 8 | 13 / 6 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 |
Win probability (model): Liverpool 33.5% | Draw 28.3% | Arsenal 38.2%
Key Battle
Liverpool’s attack against the league’s meanest back line. The Reds have failed to score in two of their four home games. If Arsenal take the lead, Liverpool don’t have the form to suggest they can break down a side that has lived on 1-0s all season.
XScore Verdict
The bookies’ instinct of a narrow Arsenal edge looks right. Arsenal travel well, don’t concede, and Liverpool’s Anfield aura has gone missing this season. But Saka’s likely absence takes away Arsenal’s main source of chances, and that pushes this towards a tight, cagey game.
- Main tip: Arsenal or Draw (Double Chance X2)
- Value pick: Under 2.5 goals
- Correct score: Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal (alternative: 0-1)
Prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal. Arsenal won’t lose this one, but without Saka they may have to settle for a point.
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