XScore Football Analysis | 28 October 2026
Last week Arsenal drew 2-2 with Bayern Munich away from home. On Tuesday night they were knocked out of the Carabao Cup by Fleetwood Town.
Fleetwood are 18th in League Two. They started the night 84 places below Arsenal in the English football pyramid, and bookmakers had them at around 15/1 to go through. By the end, Fleetwood fans were celebrating on the pitch, a 16-year-old Arsenal player had been sent off, and the Premier League champions had gone out of a cup to a fourth-tier club for the first time in the competition’s history.
The obvious reaction is “typical Arsenal”. But is it actually typical? Or do a few memorable collapses make the problem look bigger than it is?
Tuesday night at Fleetwood
It didn’t go to plan from early on. Play was held up for eight minutes because of a drone over the ground. Not long after the restart, Fleetwood’s Aaron Loupalo-Bi, on loan from Fulham, got past Marli Salmon and scored to put the home side 1-0 up after 21 minutes.
Arteta sent on his captain, Martin Ødegaard, at half-time. Five minutes into the second half Viktor Gyökeres scrambled in an equaliser, and it looked as though Arsenal would go on and win comfortably.
They didn’t. Arsenal kept the ball and kept pushing, but Fleetwood goalkeeper Jay Lynch made big saves to deny Ben White and Ødegaard.
Then, with five minutes of normal time left, Max Dowman lost his cool. The 16-year-old, who had been Arsenal’s liveliest player, appeared to kick out at Fleetwood midfielder Harrison Neal after a hard challenge. The referee showed him a straight red card for violent conduct.
As Dowman walked towards the tunnel, Arteta appeared to say something to him. Paul Merson said afterwards that the manager should have put an arm around him instead. When reporters asked what he’d said, Arteta would only tell them it was “something that we discussed before the game”. Sky co-commentator Andy Hinchcliffe thought the red card was harsh. Arteta’s answer was that even with ten men, Arsenal had three big chances to score a second.
The game went to penalties. Lynch saved from Bruno Guimarães, and Fleetwood’s teenage defender Conor Haughey smashed in the winning kick to make it 5-3.
It isn’t the first time
This kind of result has happened before. Here are the recent ones fans remember most:
| Match | Score | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood v Arsenal, Oct 2026 | 1-1 (lost 5-3 on pens) | Went behind early, had a player sent off, lost the shootout |
| Arsenal v Bournemouth, Apr 2026 | 1-2 | Home defeat in the middle of the title run-in |
| Wolves v Arsenal, Feb 2026 | 2-2 | Led 2-0 against the bottom club and drew |
| Brentford v Arsenal, Feb 2026 | 1-1 | Lost a lead six days before Wolves |
The worst of these is still Wolves. Arsenal were top of the table and Wolves were bottom, having lost 10 of their 13 home games. Bukayo Saka headed Arsenal in front after five minutes, and Piero Hincapié scored his first goal for the club to make it 2-0 early in the second half.
Five minutes later, Hugo Bueno curled a shot into the top corner. In the fourth minute of stoppage time, after a mix-up between David Raya and Gabriel, a shot from 19-year-old debutant Tom Edozie went in off Riccardo Calafiori. It was the first time in Premier League history that the team top of the table had lost a two-goal lead to the team at the bottom.
A note on Brighton: People often add September’s 3-0 defeat at the Amex to this list. It doesn’t belong there. Brighton are the league’s top scorers and went third that day. Arsenal were well beaten by a very good side, not by a small one.
Why it keeps happening: five reasons
1. Lots of the ball, not enough danger
Arteta’s Arsenal are built to control games. Against strong teams that come out and play, that works well, because there’s space to attack. Against a team defending deep with ten men behind the ball, that space disappears. The passing gets slower and more predictable, and the opposition can stay in shape. At Fleetwood, Arsenal had plenty of the ball but needed a scrappy goal to score even once.
2. They don’t finish teams off
In 2024-25, Arsenal dropped 21 points from winning positions, equal to the worst total in the club’s history. In 2025-26 they had already matched that with 11 games still to play. They won the title anyway, their first in 22 years, but the habit followed them.
3. Too many close wins
Even this season’s good results have been tight. Leeds scored first at the Emirates before Arsenal came back to win 2-1. At Nottingham Forest, Noni Madueke’s 80th-minute goal was the only one of the game. Both count as wins, but when the margin is that small, one mistake can cost you the result.
4. Sitting on a lead
When Arsenal go ahead, they often settle for keeping control rather than adding a second goal. That gives the other team time to grow into the game and more chances to profit from an error, like the Raya-Gabriel mix-up at Molineux.
5. The pressure of being expected to win
Against Bayern Munich, nobody expects Arsenal to win easily, so there’s little pressure. Against Fleetwood, they’re expected to win comfortably, and the longer it stays level, the more that weighs on them. Decisions get rushed and frustration builds, and at Fleetwood that frustration ended with a red card. Psychology is hard to prove from a handful of games, but Dowman’s sending-off fits the pattern.
The other side of the story
Before deciding Arsenal have a soft centre, look at their league record this season:
8 games, 7 wins, 1 defeat, 21 points, level with Manchester City at the top.
Coventry, Sunderland, Leeds, Nottingham Forest and Everton, all in the bottom half, have each been beaten. Arsenal haven’t dropped a single league point to a weaker side this season.
The Fleetwood team was also heavily rotated. Declan Rice, Gabriel and David Raya didn’t play. That isn’t an excuse for losing to a League Two side, but it does explain some of it.
XScore verdict
Arsenal don’t look down on smaller teams. The issue is that their careful, controlled style keeps too many of these games close, and in a close game the underdog only needs one mistake or one moment.
Teams that win trophies don’t just keep the ball against weaker opposition. They score early, keep scoring and kill the game off. Arsenal managed that often enough to win the league last season. On the nights they don’t, things can go wrong quickly, as they did against Fleetwood.
Losing to Fleetwood won’t decide Arsenal’s season. But it’s a reminder of the gap between controlling a game and actually winning it comfortably, and Arteta still hasn’t completely closed it.
Your turn: is Arteta too cautious against smaller teams, or was Fleetwood just one of those nights? Tell us in the comments. 👇
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