Liverpool replaced Arne Slot with Andoni Iraola instead of club legend Xabi Alonso. Tonight Alonso brings Chelsea to Anfield and gets a chance to show Liverpool what they missed. The two managers grew up together around San Sebastián and played in the same youth team. This is the biggest tie of the round, and both men have something to prove.
Two teams going in opposite directions
Liverpool have won four in a row. They beat Villarreal in the Champions League, then beat previously unbeaten Brighton 2-0 at Anfield on Sunday, with Alexander Isak scoring. They’ve lost only once this season, and the win moved them above Chelsea into fifth in the Premier League. Iraola’s team look like they’re finally clicking.
Chelsea are in trouble. Saturday’s 2-0 home defeat to Tottenham was bad in every way. Cole Palmer was sent off, João Pedro picked up a thigh injury in training the day before, and pressure on Alonso is already building.
He has lost on both of his previous visits to Anfield as a manager, and Chelsea haven’t won there since 2020-21.
Team news
Liverpool: Iraola says “there will definitely be changes”. Arsenal visit Anfield on Sunday, and he made six changes for Villarreal and four for Brighton.
- Florian Wirtz twisted his ankle against Brighton, but Iraola is “quite optimistic” he’ll be available
- Dominik Szoboszlai and Victor Muñoz are doubtful
- Conor Bradley, Jeremie Frimpong, Giovanni Leoni and Hugo Ekitiké are out
- Virgil van Dijk is 35 and could be rested
- Rio Ngumoha made two assists against Villarreal and is expected to start against his old club
Likely Liverpool XI: Mamardashvili; Araújo, Gomez, Endō, Tsimikas; Gravenberch, Nyoni, Wirtz; Chiesa, Koumas, Ngumoha.
Chelsea: They’re missing three of their most important players.
- Cole Palmer is suspended after his red card against Spurs
- João Pedro is out for several weeks with a thigh injury
- Emiliano Martínez is out with a fractured jaw, so Mike Penders keeps his place despite his error against Spurs
- Reece James and Pep Chavarría are injured
- Estêvão and Danny Welbeck are expected to come into the attack
Likely Chelsea XI (3-4-3): Penders; Fofana, Lacroix, Colwill; Neto, Henderson, Caicedo, Hato; Estêvão, Rogers, Welbeck.
Tactical battle
1. Chelsea have no cutting edge. Without Palmer and João Pedro, Chelsea lose their main creator and their main goalscorer. Estêvão has the talent to decide a game, but Welbeck leading the line at Anfield is a big drop in quality. Chelsea will probably have to rely on set pieces and counter-attacks.
2. Ngumoha and Liverpool’s wingers vs Chelsea’s wing-backs. Alonso’s back three needs the wing-backs to do a lot of running. If Liverpool start Ngumoha and Chiesa wide, Chelsea’s wing-backs will be pinned back, and Liverpool can get at the gaps between the centre-backs.
3. Wirtz between the lines. If Wirtz is fit, he’s the player most likely to unlock Chelsea’s block. Caicedo’s job of shutting down that space is the key individual battle.
4. Penders under pressure. A young goalkeeper who made a mistake at the weekend now faces a loud Anfield crowd under the lights. Liverpool should test him early with crosses and long shots.
The case for Chelsea
Don’t write Chelsea off. They’re unbeaten in their last three meetings with Liverpool, and Liverpool have won only three of the last 11 between the sides, not counting shootouts. Chelsea also have no European football this season. Of the three times since 1996 that they’ve been out of Europe, they reached a domestic cup final every time. Liverpool’s team will be heavily rotated as well, so this won’t be Liverpool’s strongest side against a weakened Chelsea.
Key players
- Florian Wirtz (Liverpool): If he’s fit, he’s Liverpool’s best creative player.
- Rio Ngumoha (Liverpool): In form, and playing against the club he left.
- Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea): Has to protect the defence and win the midfield.
- Estêvão (Chelsea): With Palmer out, Chelsea need him to make something happen.
Betting angles
- Liverpool to win in 90 minutes: Home advantage, form and Chelsea’s absences all point the same way.
- Both teams to score: Liverpool’s rotated back line has been vulnerable, and Chelsea have quality from set pieces and Estêvão.
- Liverpool win + BTTS: The best-value combination.
- Ngumoha to score or assist: A good player prop given his form and his history with Chelsea.
XScore verdict
Both sides will rotate, but Liverpool’s squad looks deeper right now and their confidence is much higher. Without Palmer, João Pedro and Martínez, Alonso will find it hard to win at Anfield. Chelsea will probably score, but Liverpool should go through.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea Best bet: Liverpool to win & BTTS
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