Manchester City are the holders, they top the Premier League and they hammered Norwich 5-0 in the last round. Even so, this tie should worry them. Brighton are the one top-flight side City haven’t been able to solve in the Maresca era. Enzo Maresca has rested five of his best players, Fabian Hürzeler is calling the night “do-or-die”, and both teams lost at the weekend.
The context: two bruised teams
Both sides are coming off a defeat. Before Saturday, City had won all seven league games under Maresca, a club record, until two individual errors cost them in a 2-1 loss at Aston Villa. Marc Guéhi gave the ball away for Nicolas Jackson’s opener, and Gianluigi Donnarumma’s mistake gifted Jackson the winner. City haven’t won at Villa Park in five visits.
Brighton were flying before Sunday too: four straight league wins with 15 goals scored and none conceded. Then they lost 2-0 at Anfield. Hürzeler complained that Liverpool’s pragmatism, and not his team’s play, decided it, and Brighton’s numbers that day were better than Liverpool’s.
The two clubs also meet again in the Premier League on Saturday. Brighton are staying in Manchester all week, and that tells you how seriously they’re taking this.
Team news
Man City: Maresca has confirmed that Erling Haaland, Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol, Elliot Anderson and Donnarumma have been given three days off. Gerónimo Rulli starts in goal. Antoine Semenyo is out for at least seven more weeks, and Matheus Nunes is a doubt.
That means City have no Haaland, no first-choice centre-back pairing and no first-choice keeper. What’s left is still strong:
- Floyd Samba, who scored twice against Norwich, is the likeliest striker
- Phil Foden is in form and playing for a league start
- Jérémy Doku and summer signing Allan need minutes
- Vitor Reis and Abdukodir Khusanov, who partnered at centre-back against Norwich
XScore projected City XI (4-2-3-1): Rulli; Lewis, Reis, Khusanov, O’Reilly; Kovačić, Bouaddi; Allan, Foden, Doku; Samba.
Brighton: Kaoru Mitoma and Pascal Struijk are out. Yankuba Minteh is back in the squad for the first time this season, and Mats Wieffer is also available, though neither is certain to start. Ferdi Kadıoğlu and Chema Andrés are carrying knocks from Anfield but should be in contention. Expect some rotation, but Hürzeler has treated this game as a priority.
Tactical battle
1. City’s defence is the weak point. Both clubs are among the Premier League’s highest scorers this season, and neither defends well. City concede the best-quality chances of any team in the division. Without Dias and Gvardiol, against a Brighton side that attacks at speed, that’s a real problem.
2. Brighton know how to beat City. City have faced 22 different top-flight clubs since the start of 2024-25 and beaten 21 of them. Brighton are the only exception. Hürzeler’s side press high, play out from the back with confidence and get runners beyond City’s full-backs.
3. Maresca’s priorities. Maresca is treating the tie as one to manage rather than win at all costs, with Saturday’s league rematch in mind. Brighton see it as a chance at a trophy. That gap in motivation matters in a one-off cup tie.
4. City’s young players. Samba, Reis, Bouaddi, O’Reilly and Ryan McAidoo are talented, but this is a different test from Norwich at home. If Brighton score early, the Etihad could get tense.
Key players
- Phil Foden (City): With Haaland out, City’s attack will go through Foden. He’s in good form and wants to force his way back into the league side.
- Jérémy Doku (City): Going one-on-one with Brighton’s full-backs is City’s most direct route to goal.
- Pascal Groß (Brighton): Sets the tempo and takes the set pieces, which matters against a reshuffled City back line.
- Yankuba Minteh (Brighton): Fresh legs and pace if he starts, and a dangerous option off the bench if he doesn’t.
Betting angles
- Both teams to score: Two of the league’s best attacks, two leaky defences and a makeshift City back line. This is the strongest angle.
- Over 2.5 goals: For the same reasons.
- Brighton double chance or +0.5: City’s price will likely be built on their reputation, not tonight’s line-up, so there may be value in backing Brighton.
- To go to penalties: Worth a small stake. Draws are not unusual in recent meetings between these two.
XScore verdict
City’s reserves would beat most sides, but Brighton aren’t most sides. With Haaland, Dias, Gvardiol and Donnarumma all rested, Brighton have the motivation, the tactical plan and a record of beating City. Expect goals at both ends and a nervy night at the Etihad.
Prediction: Man City 2-2 Brighton (Brighton to win on penalties) Best bet: BTTS + Over 2.5 goals
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